A Multi-Layer Framework for Modelling Resilience in Waterway-Dependent Supply Chains Using Reliability Theory
ISBN:
978-3-8396-2207-0
Verlag:
Fraunhofer Verlag
Land des Verlags:
Deutschland
Erscheinungsdatum:
13.08.2026
Herausgeber:
Reihe:
Innovationen für die Maritime Logistik / Innovations for maritime logistics
Format:
Softcover
Seitenanzahl:
163
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Disruptions to waterway infrastructure like lock closures impose substantial economic costs. Their effect on supply chain resilience, however, remains limited.
This dissertation develops a multi-layer, multi-state resilience model for waterway-dependent supply chains grounded in reliability theory, linking the infrastructure, transportation, supply chain and industry layers. Using the West German canal system as a case study, the model quantifies the system-wide cost of infrastructure disruption (about seven million euros per day) and evaluates mitigation strategies such as modal shift and warning time. Furthermore, this dissertation identifies the novel "shuttling effect", a cyclical phenomenon that is distinct from the ripple effect. The effect arises from repeated short-term capacity constraints in shared, capacitated infrastructure.
This dissertation develops a multi-layer, multi-state resilience model for waterway-dependent supply chains grounded in reliability theory, linking the infrastructure, transportation, supply chain and industry layers. Using the West German canal system as a case study, the model quantifies the system-wide cost of infrastructure disruption (about seven million euros per day) and evaluates mitigation strategies such as modal shift and warning time. Furthermore, this dissertation identifies the novel "shuttling effect", a cyclical phenomenon that is distinct from the ripple effect. The effect arises from repeated short-term capacity constraints in shared, capacitated infrastructure.