Predictive Behavior
ISBN:
978-3-540-57311-1
Auflage:
Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1993
Verlag:
Springer Berlin
Land des Verlags:
Deutschland
Erscheinungsdatum:
29.11.1993
Reihe:
Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
Format:
Softcover
Seitenanzahl:
227
Lieferung in 3-4 Werktagen
Versandkostenfrei ab 40 Euro in Österreich
This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with
a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting
behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be
forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model
involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This
designprovides an optimal background for rational
expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these
hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior
satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of
rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather
than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of
volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is
observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such
as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are
studied.
